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Schlagworte: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Landwirtschaft, Ernährungssicherung

Keywords: South Africa, Climate Change, Agriculture, Food Security

Weblink:

http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-12
http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-12/file

Abstract:

The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model.

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