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Keywords: sea level rise, storm surge, tropical cyclone risk, flood risk, southern Africa, Mozambique, Sea, Tropical storm, Flood, Maputo, Beira

Suchbegriffe: Mosambik, Meer, Tropensturm, Flut, Maputo, Beira


Keywords: Mozambique, climate change, adaptation, climate change governance, urban planning, flood, partnership

Schlagwörter: Maputo, Mosambik, Anpassungsstrategien, Klimapolitik, Stadtplanung, Maputo.

Keywords: Mozambique, Climate change, economy, models, Limpopo

Schlagwörter: Mosambik, Klimawandel, Wirtschaft, Modelle

Keywords: South Africa, climate change, scenarios, research, adaptation, policy, development, economy
Schlagwörter: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Szenarien, Forschung, Anpassung, Politik, Entwicklung, Wirtschaft

Copyright: WIREs Clim Change 2014, 5:605–620. doi: 10.1002/wcc.295


Schlagwörter: Mauritius, Klimawandel, Ernährungssicherung, Landwirtschaft, Wetteranalysen

Keywords: Mauritius, climate change, food security, agriculture, weather metrics



The purpose of this paper is to delve into an extensive analysis of different food crops, ranging from bananas, beans, brinjals, cabbages, chillies, creepers, groundnuts, mixed vegetables, pineapples and tomatoes, over three decades. To maintain an ever-increasing population level, much stress is exerted on the production of food crops. However, till date, very little is known about how climate change is influencing the production of food crops in Mauritius, an upper-income developing country found in the Indian Ocean and highly vulnerable to climate risks. Based on the interactions between production of crops, harvest area for crops and weather metrics, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) system is applied comprising production of each crop with their respective harvest area. Weather metrics are then entered into as exogeneous components of the model.

The underlying rationale is that weather metrics are not caused by production or harvest area and should thereby be exogeneously treated. Should there be cointegration between the endogenous components, the vector error correction model (VECM) will be used. Diagnostic tests will also be entertained in terms of ensuring the endogeneity states of the presumed variables under investigation. The impact of harvest area on product is plain, as higher the harvest area, the higher is the production. However, a bi-directional causality can also manifest in the case that higher production leads towards lower harvest area in the next period as land is being made to rest to restore its nutrients to enable stable land productivity over time. Other dynamics could also be present. In case cointegration prevails, VECM will be used as the econometric model.

The VAR/VECM approach is applied by virtue of the fact that traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation approach will be biased and susceptible to trigger off unreliable results. Results show weather metrics do influence the production of crops in Mauritius, with cyclone being particularly harmful for tomatoes, chillies and creepers. Temperature is found to trail behind bearish impacts on tomatoes and cabbages production, but positive impacts in case of bananas, brinjals and pineapples productions, whereas humidity enhances production of beans, creepers and groundnuts. Evidence is found in favour of production being mainly governed by harvest area. Overall, the study points out the need of weather derivatives in view of hedging against crop damages, let alone initiation of adaptation strategies to undermine the adverse effects of climate change.  

Keywords: Madagascar, climate change, food security, livelihoods, drought

Schlagwörter: Madagaskar, Klimawandel, Ernährungssicherung, livelihoods, Dürre



Keywords: South Africa, climate change, rainfall, water, agriculture, economy



Statistical evidence suggests that South Africa has been getting hotter over the past four decades, with average yearly temperatures increasing by 0.13°C a decade between 1960 and 2003, with relatively higher levels for the fall, winter and summer periods. There has also been an increase in the number of warmer days and a decrease in the number of cooler days. Moreover, the average rainfall in the country is very low, estimated at 450mm per year – well below the world’s average of 860mm per year – while evaporation is comparatively high. In addition, surface and underground water are very limited, with more than 50% of the available water resources being used for only 10% of the country’s agricultural activities. Climate change, which may make temperatures climb and reduce the rains and change their timing, may therefore put more pressure on the country’s scarce water resources, with implications for agriculture, employment and food security.

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